Ether fades from 2,720 as sellers hold the tape
Ether tagged 2,720 in the latest twelve-hour candle on turnover of roughly 8.4 million ETH — more than double the prior leg — before fading back to 2,687. The last six hours ground lower from 2,694 to a 2,650 low and have only just steadied near 2,665, with every recovery candle printing negative delta. Cumulative delta sits deeply underwater, so the drift still reads as distribution rather than a turn.
Full analysis
ETHUSDT Desk Read — the heavy fade
Angle this run: the quiet grind under a heavy tape. Last publication framed the move as a failed push at the top of the range; this window the market never even got to retest the highs — it simply bled lower on expanding supply, with each bounce sold. The twelve-hour candle is a distribution bar, and the six-hour flow is a slow leak punctuated by one heavy down-hour.
12-hour candles (Binance, 720m)
| Window (UTC) | Open | Close | High | Low | Volume (ETH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 00:00 | 2,650.73 | 2,667.87 | 2,668.47 | 2,634.00 | 3.42M |
| Sep 28 12:00 | 2,667.87 | 2,687.55 | 2,720.00 | 2,648.27 | 8.37M |
The latest candle ran 2.45× the prior leg's volume while making a higher high (2,720) but closing only ~20 points above its open. That is a textbook spike-and-fade: buyers pushed into 2,720 and sellers absorbed the entire thrust, leaving price back near the middle of the range.
Last ~6 hours (1h closes)
| Hour (UTC) | Close | High | Low | Volume (ETH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:00 | 2,686.51 | 2,686.53 | 2,666.58 | 255K |
| 23:00 | 2,687.55 | 2,693.86 | 2,684.44 | 200K |
| 00:00 | 2,675.56 | 2,694.64 | 2,675.56 | 251K |
| 01:00 | 2,664.18 | 2,680.14 | 2,655.00 | 749K |
| 02:00 | 2,656.41 | 2,666.94 | 2,650.50 | 374K |
| 03:00 | 2,665.59 | 2,668.51 | 2,654.21 | 299K |
The six-hour tape peaked at 2,694.64 early, then the 01:00 hour dropped the hammer — 749K ETH of volume (3× the surrounding bars) driving price from 2,680 to a 2,655 low. The 02:00–03:00 candles have only managed a tepid repair to 2,665, well shy of reclaiming the 2,694 shelf.
Delta / CVD (1h, Binance)
| Hour (UTC) | Delta | CVD |
|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | -1,042 | -20,029 |
| 03:00 | -13,022 | -33,005 |
Both recent hours printed negative delta, and the 03:00 bar was the worst of the window at -13,022 — meaning the bounce off 2,650 is being bought passively while aggressors keep selling into it. Cumulative delta has deepened from -20,029 to -33,005 over just two hours. The recovery is not initiative; it is short-covering against a still-heavy tape.
Session tone
The market is in a distribution posture: higher highs on expanding volume that fail to hold, and every rally leg met with negative delta. Support is the 2,648–2,650 shelf that has now been tested twice without giving way; resistance is the 2,694–2,720 supply zone that rejected the last two pushes.
Read: bias is down while price holds below 2,694. A reclaim of 2,694 on positive delta would be the first sign the tape is turning; losing 2,648 opens a retest of 2,634 and then the 2,620 area. Until delta flips positive, rallies remain for sale.